Update 12:45 p.m. 9-12-12: shows support for the amendment at 48 percent and opposition against it at 47 percent.
With a new poll suggesting a same-sex marriage ban could pass this November, supporters of a proposed state constitutional amendment doing just that may have walked around with an extra spring in their step on Tuesday.
Current state law already bans same-sex marriage.
According to the KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll, support for the measure sits at about 50 percent, and opposition against the amendment at about 43 percent. The remaining eight percent or so are undecided, the station said. The station also broke down poll results by geography:
The amendment is favored in all regions of the state, with the closest margin in the Twin Cities metro area where the "yes" vote is ahead just 46 percent to 44 percent. The amendment is also supported by voters in the 18 to 49 age group by a margin of 48 percent to 42 percent. "Likely voters" over the age of 50 support the amendment 51 percent to 44 percent.
The poll surveyed 551 likely Minnesota voters via both landlines and cell phones, according to Minnesota Public Radio, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent. The mix of phone types is important, meaning the poll had a higher likelihood of reaching both older and younger voters.
The last poll on the marriage issue was a July 19 SurveyUSA poll on the same issue that at least one independent researcher called "flukey," according to MinnPost. That poll pegged opposition to the amendment at just 37 percent and support at 52 percent, after surveying 552 Minnesotans and claiming a 4.3 percent margin of error.
Still, the eight polls conducted on the marriage amendment since mid-2011 suggest that amendment supporters are making steady inroads on Minnesota voters.Poll Date Support Oppose Undecided Number Surveyed Margin of Error Star-Tribune 5/5/11 39% 55% 7% 809 +/- 4.7% KSTP/SurveyUSA 5/24/11 51% 40% 10% 552 Not reported Star-Tribune 11/8/11 48% 43% 9% 807 +/- 4/4% Public Policy Polling 1/21/12 48% 44% 8% 1,236 +/- 2.8% KSTP/SurveyUSA 2/2/12 47% 39% 4% 542 +/- 4.3% Public Policy Polling 6/3/12 43% 49% 8% 937 +/- 3.1% KSTP/SurveyUSA 7/19/12 52% 37% 6% 552 +/- 4.3% KSTP/SurveyUSA 9/11/12 50% 43% 8% 551 +/- 4.3%
The Sept. 11 poll also asked voters about their support for , which would require voters to show a government-issued photo ID at their polling place. That portion of the survey showed the measure could pass handily, with 62 percent in favor, 31 percent opposed, and seven percent undecided.
Have you had your opinion swayed one way or the other on the Voter ID or same-sex marriage issues? What persuaded you to change your mind?